Hard Times Ahead

I know it is hard to believe but it has been less than two months that a new administration has been in place in Washington.  From our civics class back in high school, we know that every four years (or at most, every eight years), a transition occurs such as this.  I say that, but, in my lifetime, I have never seen a transition like this.  It has been chaotic, sporadic, narcissistic, and even anarchistic.  I believe that all of this drama and trauma has been intentional and well-planned, although it certainly doesn’t feel that way.

Back in November of 1940, about a year prior to the attack at Pearl Harbor that brought the United States into WWII, FDR won a third term in office.  It was unprecedented at the time but not illegal, as it is now thanks to the 22nd Amendment ratified in 1951. 

“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”

FDR wasn’t the first person to seek a third term.  In fact, his cousin Teddy had tried it, as had Ulysses S. Grant.  George Washington back in 1796, almost two hundred and thirty years ago, set the precedent when he declined to run for a third term of office.  His decision was seen as a safeguard against the type of tyrannical power wielded by the British during Colonial days.  He believed that America was not designed to have a king as a ruler, and he would do what he could to forestall that.

It was only after WWII had broken out in Europe and Germany was invading France that Franklin Delano Roosevelt decided to ignore precedent and to run again, in hopes, he said, of maintaining a sense of continuity and safety in the United States and keeping us out of the war.  Many Republicans, as well as Democrats, refuted this premise and the Republican-controlled Congress began efforts to introduce the 22nd Amendment which would forbid a third term.    

No surprise, it was Thomas Dewey who vehemently opposed FDR running again.  “Four terms or sixteen years is the most dangerous threat to our freedom ever proposed.  That is one reason that I believe that two terms must be established as the limit by constitutional amendment,” he warned.

Fast forward to 2025, and here we stand faced with a possible similar dilemma.  It was just last week that President Trump, perhaps jokingly…perhaps not, spoke about seeking a third term.  He has referred to himself often as a king and several years ago declared in January 2013 that “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I would not lose any voters”.  Regal diplomacy, for sure.

Perhaps this is true.  Certainly, the majority of Americans voted him into office once again and he has many devoted supporters.  He appealed to enough Americans that he is once again a sitting President of our country.  I have tried to convince myself that even he would not try to override an amendment but I am not sure that he would not do that.  I am also not sure that Congress or the Supreme Court would stop him from doing so if he made that choice.  Hard times ahead.

For those of us who might be skeptics regarding the intentions of Donald J. Trump, let us look at what his stated intentions were when he sought office.  Back in 2017, when Trump was first elected, he stated that he planned to repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obama Care), reduce Medicaid and Medicare spending, cut welfare programs, and enact tariffs.  While he was only partially successful in repealing the Affordable Care Act or in reducing much in the way of spending, he did have some success in placing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union.  He did succeed in withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and he oversaw the third biggest federal deficit growth of any president.  In fact, the federal deficit increased significantly under Trump due to spending increases and tax cuts for the wealthy.  All in all, not a particularly productive or successful term in office.

Enter Joe Biden in 2021.  We are all aware of the false claims that the election was stolen from Trump, just as we all watched in horror on January 6th when Trump’s gangs attacked the Capitol Building in an attempt to overthrow the government.  Thankfully, Trump was unsuccessful in his endeavor.  Sanity eventually reigned and Trump faded into the background. 

But did he?  Not only did he not fade away, he gained popularity amongst many.  The insurrectionist mob that had stormed the Capitol was made up primarily of longtime Trump supporters, including Republican Party officials, GOP political donors, far-right militants, Proud Boys, white supremacists, off-duty cops, members of the military and adherents of the Q-Anon myth that the government is secretly controlled by a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophile cannibals.  While it can be safely assumed that these people continued their adoration of Trump over the next four years, it is also true that many others must not only have supported his ideas but actually cast votes that put him back into office.   But who?

According to a recent NPR survey, there were nine major reasons that Trump was reelected in November 2024. 

1. For years, the American public has been increasingly upset with illegal border crossings from Mexico and the high costs of food and housing.  Exit polls revealed that the general public trusted Trump more than Biden on the economy, immigration crackdowns, crime, and foreign policy.
2. White voters went up as a share of the electorate for the first time in decades, even though white people are a smaller share of the population than ever before.  In fact, they have been steadily declining.  This was a boon to Trump.
3. Trump expanded his coalition, driven by males. Trump won 46% of the male Latino vote and most of the white male vote overall.
4. Harris won the female vote but not enough to win the election.
5. The gender divide still exists.  Now maybe Harris was too tied to the Biden administration and reluctant to break away from that; whatever the reason, a majority of American doubted her capability, whether due to her gender or for other reasons.
6. Ticket-splitting occurred but not enough to prevent a GOP wave.
7. Democratic voter turnout was way off.   Harris’ declines were apparent even in blue states.
8. Polls evidently underestimated Trump’s support again, as they did in his first run.   People just could not believe that Trump could win again.
9. Trump won the middle-class and the working class.  Harris appealed to college-educated, and thus more wealthy, citizens, but it was not enough.  While abortion rights and LGBTQ+ issues were important, money, or lack thereof, and perceived safety and security won out.

Again, hard times ahead for not only the Democratic Party but for any of us who have not consumed the Kool-Aid that is Donald Trump.

So, what is ahead?  If Trump seemed to stumble and be unsure of his way last time he was in office, I do not see that happening now.  Within days of him taking office in January, he seemed organized, determined, and driven.  Replacing his grown children from his first administration with fervent and even more devoted lackeys, Trump hit the ground running.  Albeit, it has often been in many directions and lacking in clarity and assurance, yet full tilt for sure.  If creating chaos has been and continues to be his operandum, he is winning.  Because Congress is behind him, he has been able to bring on board such unqualified people as RFK, Jr. to head Health and Human Services, Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, Kash Patel for Director of the FBI, and the new Secretary of Education will be Linda McMahon.  RFK, Jr. is an anti-vaccine and anti-science proponent and advocate, while Hegseth has very questionable habits of womanizing and drunken outbursts.  McMahon has no experience in the classroom and only one year on a school committee, but, somehow, she will be in charge of dismantling the Board of Education.  Patel has sworn to “come after the media” if they do not support Trump and his policies, and he supports deep-state conspiracy theories.  We fare no better with Dr. Oz...yes, that Dr. Oz of TV fame who went off the rails a few years ago when he endorsed Trump and vowed to “clean out the dead and decrepit from Medicaid rolls”, to head the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid.

Smoke and mirrors…smoke and mirrors.  Sometimes I feel like we’re at an old-fashioned carnival, complete with slight-of-hand, magic tunnels, and sword-wielding (or chain-saw wielding) characters in charge.  While it may be true that Elon Musk was elected to no position of authority, he certainly appears to be in charge.  I found it ironic that Trump and Vance berated Zelinsky for his inappropriate attire and audacity to stand up for truth and his country’s needs during his visit to the White House, when Musk is welcomed wearing t-shirts, sneakers, and rally caps toting a four-year-old on his shoulders while holding court in the Oval Office.  Hard times ahead, for sure.

In his second term, Trump made his intentions abundantly clear at his Congressional Address this past week.  He plans to:

• Close the Mexican/American border
• Begin deportation of those who have crossed the borders illegally
• Reinstate a travel ban
• Sign an executive order that will ban children born to undocumented immigrants in the United States from being American citizens
• Expedite permits for drilling and fracking
• Roll back environmental regulations
• Undue Biden’s action to permanently ban future offshore oil and gas development
• Pardon people convicted of crimes on January 6th
• Cut federal funding for any school that “pushes critical race theory, transgender insanity, and/or other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content into the lives of our children”
• Roll back Biden’s electric vehicle policies and dismantle charging stations
• Place tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China
• Create an External Revenue Service to collect funds from the tariffs and all revenue from “foreign sources”

Here are some things Trump will not be doing:

• Supporting women’s rights to decide what they can do with their own bodies
• Providing veterans with needed and guaranteed ongoing medical support
• Offering aid to foreign countries around the world to eradicate and protect against HIV, viruses, and illnesses
• Bringing resources and food to oppressed and starving people
• Funding the NIH and Centers for Disease Control
• Allowing teachers to educate students about all of America’s history, good and bad
• Advocating for clean air, water, open space, and other environmental issues
• Protecting democracy, liberty, and equity in America

Hard times ahead.  Very hard times. 

I have never subscribed to any political party, nor do I plan to do so.  I definitely lean to the left, but have voted for Republicans. I liked Charlie Baker and Romney as governors of Massachusetts, and although I was not in support of many of McCain’s policies, I admired him and saw him as honest and a true patriot.  Even Liz Cheney could sometimes persuade me on an issue.  I do not want to see our borders overrun by those who come to us via illegal means, but neither do I want to see immigrants, even if they have crossed our borders without proper authorization or papers, be thrown out if the reason they came here was simply to find a safer and better life for themselves and their families.  Could there not be an avenue through which these people could attain citizenship now that they have lived here without incident for sometimes as long as thirty or forty years?

What Trump and Musk are lacking is basic humanity, I fear.  Both are narcissistic egotists, apparently incapable or desirous of accomplishing any of their own goals without causing mayhem and heartbreak.  Last week Trump said in one of his diatribes that there might be “a little discomfort” for folks as his new policies were implemented.  I’ll bet that Hitler, too, thought that “purification” of his country was worth a “little discomfort” also. 
 
Hard times ahead indeed.  It is early in Trump’s second term and perhaps too soon to panic, although I don’t think so.  I am tired after the election and very disappointed, not only in the outcome but also with my fellow Americans.  I find myself referring to those who do not espouse my beliefs as stupid and uncaring, and maybe they are.  Certainly, we are on different planes right now.  As a Unitarian Universalist, I try daily to live up to my beliefs.  We say that there is inherent worth in every human being and that we want justice, equity, and compassion in human relations.  Is it too much to expect that our leaders will adhere to and bring forth such ideals also?  Aren’t these human aspirations as well as UU ones? 

Although we are tired and frustrated, we must persevere. It is our duty and our right as humans to expose evil when we witness it, and I believe we are seeing some of that right now. 

​Amen.